According to the paper, the EU’s goals for climate adaptation and mitigation policies will severely impact work and employment and probably also affect business models. Some jobs will be lost or require different skill sets, as they are ‘greened,’ while others will be created.

As short-term effects, implementing the nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement would generate a small negative effect on employment in the EU but result in a positive impact if these losses are offset by using carbon revenues to reduce labour taxation.

As medium-term effects on employment, changes in energy prices and new tax rules due to restrictions on carbon dioxide emissions may hamper labour demand, but new opportunities to export environmentally friendly technologies should positively affect employment.

Almost all actions will generate positive effects on employment in the long term. Still, it will also depend on country-specific changes in complementary areas such as education, training, professional mobility, and industrial relations.

Policies on climate change can also create consequences for working conditions and job quality. Adaptation policies are more likely to generate labour demand, additional training requirements, and changes in business models.

However, global analyses show that the sectors where job opportunities are expected to emerge in the transition are still male-dominated and with poor quality working conditions (ILO and Eurofound, 2019).

Based on available data, the paper shows that the sectors most likely to face decline or significant change, mainly due to climate mitigation policies, include mining, petrochemicals, energy-intensive industries, and intensive agriculture.

Increased demands for health care and emergency services due to climate change will likely harm working time quality.

Similarly, labour and skills shortages in the short to medium term could affect the quality of working time in green and greening sectors and occupations.

Training and task autonomy are also assessed to be greater among new and emergent jobs (Eurofound, 2022c), as well as greater prospects for workers in occupations requiring enhanced skills.